学会誌

Some kinds of studies about innovative products diffusion like the product lifecycle and innovation diffusion theories exist, however, they dictate only the past phenomenon or the analysis of the limited diffusion process by conducting the consumer survey with the specific target consumers. Under the recent instable business situation, it is difficult to reproduce the future projection with the studies in the business practice.
In this paper, new products diffusion model is defined as supporting the innovation forecast. Mainly Japanese twenty-four innovations are analyzed by applying them to the model in order to identify the diffusion type and provide objectively the strategic proposals by the model.
As the result, the paper can validate that the feature of the innovation adaptors are identified with the model parameters and the diffusion forecast can be classified to four diffusion types. The analysis results are applicable for the venture or the business development section in a large company to decide the initial (or additional) marketing investment or to plan the optimal release timing of the next new products as KPI of management strategy. In addition, the analysis is to be useful for the venture capitalists who should monitor the companies invested by themselves after the funding.